"Peak Value" for classic cars

[ebv8]

so what are your thoughts on peak values for classic cars?

I kind of think they are here right now i can't see them going up any further
or will they go up until ev cars are all the rage, well until they are mainstream and the enthusiasts get behind them... car clubs, modifications, racing, shows

I'm seriously thinking about selling my BA GT, it just sits there and to me its too valuable to drive it daily or race it so i just start it weekly and drive up and down my driveway and wash it. I also have a HX Holden which i want to keep, its cool and only cost $47 a year to keep it registered, I also have a classic bike and I now have an AU race car.

So should I have a fully packed driveway & garage and keep my GT or free up some space and money and sell it while the market is hot?

I think the upcoming generation will keep the classic cars moving along but the generation after that (20 years time) probably won't be interested in these at all.

what do you all think?

[Polyal]

Its a bit like the housing market situation.

Personally its only going to be people buying them for throphies in the long term.

I too have thought about selling the ZF as I am pretty confident I would do alright...given the EV movement, increasing fuel prices, parts becoming harder to get and trades loosing skill its going to be an uphill battle.

IMO anyone who says any different is just dirty they pulled super to pay for some toys.

[Citroënbender]

I think the question is best addressed by examining where the money could work hardest and be relatively safe.

[hayseed]

I reckon It'll be another 20 Yrs before We Hit "Peak".. That's when the last of the Aussie Built Cars become eligible for Club Rego, & the Kids who Lusted after one when they were New or Current but couldn't. But will then be able to.

But, Time will tell.........

[rare ss]

It's hard to say, its like the old adage of shares "when mum and dad investors are buying it's time to sell"

I don't think we're there yet.. my thoughts are we're due for a correction but it'll take something drastic which will effect everything not just classic car values

I've been in the same boat, daily driving our FPV's isn't the best but life is too short to drive boring cars..

[deesun]

I would think do it yesterday. I reckon the main reason prices rose was because people were not spending on overseas holidays and are flush with cash. Lockdowns are ending flights overseas are starting cash will start going back to overseas holidays and in 12-18 months those buyers will have found out how much work is involved for little return and the Mrs will be wanting another holiday overseas. Down the prices will tumble.

[Trevor 57]

Aussie made cars will keep increasing in value

[simon varley]

I'm not sure there is ever going to be a peak as such. values will go up and down with the economic cycle but these are a finite resource that is getting scarcer year by year and the demand will always keep prices trending up.

my little 69 veedub if probably worth three times what I paid for it six or seven years ago and it's a pretty average car really

I think this says a lot about how bland and average modern cars are

[burnz]

Originally Posted by ebv8

so what are your thoughts on peak values for classic cars?

I kind of think they are here right now i can't see them going up any further
or will they go up until ev cars are all the rage, well until they are mainstream and the enthusiasts get behind them... car clubs, modifications, racing, shows

I'm seriously thinking about selling my BA GT, it just sits there and to me its too valuable to drive it daily or race it so i just start it weekly and drive up and down my driveway and wash it. I also have a HX Holden which i want to keep, its cool and only cost $47 a year to keep it registered, I also have a classic bike and I now have an AU race car.

So should I have a fully packed driveway & garage and keep my GT or free up some space and money and sell it while the market is hot?

I think the upcoming generation will keep the classic cars moving along but the generation after that (20 years time) probably won't be interested in these at all.

what do you all think?

me: i'd probably sell it..
or get my enjoyment out of it, drive it.. you can't take it to the grave!!

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by ebv8

...
I think the upcoming generation will keep the classic cars moving along but the generation after that (20 years time) probably won't be interested in these at all...

When that next gen gets nostalgic and wants to re-live their youth they'll be seeking a hybrid Camry like the Ubers they used to ride in when they were young

[290GTP]

Originally Posted by ebv8

so what are your thoughts on peak values for classic cars?

While the property market is red hot classic cars will follow suit

I kind of think they are here right now i can't see them going up any further
or will they go up until ev cars are all the rage, well until they are mainstream and the enthusiasts get behind them... car clubs, modifications, racing, shows
You can't buy these cars any more, supply and demand

I'm seriously thinking about selling my BA GT, it just sits there and to me its too valuable to drive it daily or race it so i just start it weekly and drive up and down my driveway and wash it. I also have a HX Holden which i want to keep, its cool and only cost $47 a year to keep it registered, I also have a classic bike and I now have an AU race car.

So should I have a fully packed driveway & garage and keep my GT or free up some space and money and sell it while the market is hot?
Only you can answer that one.

I think the upcoming generation will keep the classic cars moving along but the generation after that (20 years time) probably won't be interested in these at all.

Collectors will collect. E type jags, 57 Chevs, old sh1tboxes from the 30s and 40s still have a huge following

what do you all think?

I'd keep it.

[Sprintey]

Is it peak value? That's a tough one given the monetary intervention and scramble for hard assets that followed in the last 2 years.

I've been told not to sell the Sprint as Jr learned to drive manual in it, so it has history in our family now, memories. I imagine in a couple of decades it might be used to teach grandchildren how to drive manual

And it sounds horn

[thefargo]

I drive my XB coupe every chance I get. That is why I have it. Yesterday stopped in at a mates place, he had never been in it, went for a drive - he needed to go to the local post office. If I don't want to drive it any more it is time to sell. I am careful where I go, my rule is that I don't park it where I cant see it, so it doesn't go to shopping centres. It has never been an 'investment' rather a pleasure that (luckily) I can afford.

[jstanovic]

Anyone interested in working on cars has been pretty lucky until now. Modifying a hybrid/electric car will be nearly impossible for the DIY car enthusiast, I reckon anything that can be repaired/modified will always be in high demand.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by jstanovic

Anyone interested in working on cars has been pretty lucky until now. Modifying a hybrid/electric car will be nearly impossible for the DIY car enthusiast, I reckon anything that can be repaired/modified will always be in high demand.

DIY enthusiasts are a dying breed, as are trades and parts supply.
How many of us have or work on really old cars - like 1910-40s etc? Knowledge, parts and will dies off at a certain point. I think the peak is now, particularly with covid pricing. Also covid gave us time to tinker and cheap fuel. That party is over as well.

I could be wrong and probably am, as investors and speculators are dumb so there's no sense to it all, but I think it's peak when they're snapping them up at insane prices because they think they're a good investment, like alluded before (ie, the markets goes down when serious collectors sell and the mums and dads by in high)

E: Cars have done very well over the past 5 years. I wouldn't buy into one now thinking you can do as well. Own a car because you like it. buy one because you want one. But you've missed out on 3x, 4x, 20x gains. If you have the garage then keep what you want. If you have the means buy the dream car and drive for a year and sell on etc. If you already have it then nothing to lose by keeping it. Just don't buy it thinking they'll always go up just like property as future generations aren't going to pay the big bucks. They don't swing spanners, parts availability gets harder as they age, same for mechs and knowledge. The future electrics will be faster, petrol will cost even more and they didn't buy housing at pre 1990s prices, so they can't afford a house and a classic car even at todays prices.

[jpd80]

Fuel prices continue to push higher with $1.70 /litre becoming a lot more common,
so it makes me wonder where the tipping point is for people to turn against regular
petrol vehicles. Of course, everyone has a different situation with vehicle ownership
and usage but it’s making me think do I really need to keep that V8 car or cash in?

[Franco Cozzo]

When Boomers and Gen X die off anything local unique to our market like Falcon and Kingswood/Torana/Commodore will lose value, there's not many millennial car enthusiasts around and it's getting less common for the following generations like Gen Z to be interested in the hobby as the decades go by. I've met precisely two Gen Z car enthusiasts, one was into JDM and the other had a 2002 Tickford Mustang.

Plus government legislation could stop internal combustion engines in their tracks with a stroke of a pen depending on how quickly energy density of batteries improves in the following decades.

It'll be like that 1930s Buick Special I saw for sale in mint condition with a straight 8 - was only $25K, the people who worked on those or remembered them on the roads or had them as first cars are all dead or close to shuffling off this mortal coil.

Some 1930s cars are worth big money, Ford stuff but it's all because of the US market.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Fuel prices continue to push higher with $1.70 /litre becoming a lot more common,
so it makes me wonder where the tipping point is for people to turn against regular
petrol vehicles. Of course, everyone has a different situation with vehicle ownership
and usage but it’s making me think do I really need to keep that V8 car or cash in?

In Perth suburbs yesterday I paid $1.79c a litre for BP 91Ron, its a disgrace, their diesel was $1.55c, unreal!

[Warrenk]

Interest rates could effect the price of classic cars. When interest rates start rising(and they will) and house repayments go through the roof I can see the classics going on the market so people can keep their houses. So if you paying off a house and have a classic car sell it before interest rates go up so you can benefit from the higher prices before you are forced to and get a lower price.

[Sprintey]

Gotta say Gen Z around my little sphere are petrolheads. There's been V8s, 90's stuff, 2000s stuff, classic Mercs, Alfas, lots of FGs, and increasingly, 4x4 rigs ("you can be Free out there, unlike on the road"). These guys are not Gen Y, either in interests or buying habits - or future nostalgia buying-power.

They are doing it themselves (I was blown away when the boys repaired a front axle of a 105 series on-track when it broke, natural as day, just pulled the thing apart and jury-rigged it to get home. The photos were awesome) and some are in mechanical trades. All others, all of them, are hands-on.

As far as lead-wiping, I love youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8ugkhHQ8n8

https://www.whichcar.com.au/features...rs-tech-torque

https://www.whichcar.com.au/features...rs-tech-torque

Both piping and panel there.

It's the same for individual marques/models. For example, if you go over to our forums or AULRO or try a UK based Rover 75 forum (that's already a rare car, disappearing, going classic, and complex electronically) - there are everything from buyers' guides to online guides on every form of repair of common problems. Social media on these topics supports those with questions and things to fix. The internet truly becomes 'Cathedrals in Cyberspace' as I read years ago in a futurist's book ("The Meaning of the 21st Century"). So the internet and information technology/social media doesn't replace whole activities, but rather also acts as an eternal repository of knowledge. I've learned some great CNC methodologies from it in the last year, despite never working in a machinist's shop. The results are good!

I'm a bit more bullish that today's young in future will place some value on experiences that are physically engaging and not virtual.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Gotta say Gen Z around my little sphere are petrolheads. There's been V8s, 90's stuff, 2000s stuff, classic Mercs, Alfas, lots of FGs, and increasingly, 4x4 rigs ("you can be Free out there, unlike on the road"). These guys are not Gen Y, either in interests or buying habits - or future nostalgia buying-power.

They are doing it themselves (I was blown away when the boys repaired a front axle of a 105 series on-track when it broke, natural as day, just pulled the thing apart and jury-rigged it to get home. The photos were awesome) and some are in mechanical trades. All others, all of them, are hands-on.

Yeah but they'll be forever poor though as the housing market is going to take all their money. They won't be able to afford the crazy prices of boomer and gen x toys. Any classic car these days is only going to be sold from boomer to boomer (or a gen x that bought house/s early.) And when those buyers stop buying there's no-one to flog your currently overpriced toys to. They'll just be passed down to kids for nothing, or sold for less than what they currently can get today.
If any younger gen does get cashed up why wouldn't they want a euro marque or a car appreciated worldwide, or the latest and greatest electric?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by ebv8

so what are your thoughts on peak values for classic cars?

I kind of think they are here right now i can't see them going up any further
or will they go up until ev cars are all the rage, well until they are mainstream and the enthusiasts get behind them... car clubs, modifications, racing, shows

I'm seriously thinking about selling my BA GT, it just sits there and to me its too valuable to drive it daily or race it so i just start it weekly and drive up and down my driveway and wash it. I also have a HX Holden which i want to keep, its cool and only cost $47 a year to keep it registered, I also have a classic bike and I now have an AU race car.

So should I have a fully packed driveway & garage and keep my GT or free up some space and money and sell it while the market is hot?

I think the upcoming generation will keep the classic cars moving along but the generation after that (20 years time) probably won't be interested in these at all.

what do you all think?

If you're not enjoying them, sell them. They won't go any higher. Stick it super and enjoy the annual trip to Italy instead in 10-20 years time.

If money isn't a problem, then keep them. Simples.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

If you're not enjoying them, sell them. They won't go any higher. Stick it super and enjoy the annual trip to Italy instead in 10-20 years time.

If money isn't a problem, then keep them. Simples.

Spot on. I lost interest in mine and it was an effort to get in and go for a drive. Do not miss them at all..........

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Spot on. I lost interest in mine and it was an effort to get in and go for a drive. Do not miss them at all..........

Takes a special person to put up with old car foibles too, a couple of us at work have the ****box fleet in full swing, 20-30+ year old cars and the executives and 'normies' in our industry don't understand why we put up with the 'downsides'.

I seem to be getting interest from Gen X in the Lebonator, everyone whose asked about it or shown interest has been in their 40s/50s, people who would have been in their late teens/20s when these things were new and top of the line local option - nostalgia from their early adulthood.

[Sprintey]

Lebonators were choice when Gen X was teenage - often owned by Silent Generation (pre boomer) farmers, the car was viewed as special as these older guys really missed their white WB Statesmen when Holden ditched that platform, and thus it was the car dad/uncle had when Gen X were kids.

Edit: in fact, many had held onto their WB's and traded in on VQ/VS Statesmen

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

If you're not enjoying them, sell them. They won't go any higher. Stick it super and enjoy the annual trip to Italy instead in 10-20 years time.

If money isn't a problem, then keep them. Simples.

^^^I'm not Too sure about That.^^^

[slowsnake]

The whole point of an apprenticeship is to learn the practical aspects of your chosen trade with theory being 20% of your learning, and 80% on the job.

You can learn a lot from the internet, or YouTube, but it don't give you that tradesman or Master of Apprentices looking over your shoulder guiding you!
But it's all interesting, and intimidating especially to a 1st year apprentice!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

The whole point of an apprenticeship is to learn the practical aspects of your chosen trade with theory being 20% of your learning, and 80% on the job.

You can learn a lot from the internet, or YouTube, but it don't give you that tradesman or Master of Apprentices looking over your shoulder guiding you!
But it's all interesting, and intimidating especially to a 1st year apprentice!

Not sure how long since you did your apprenticeship but I spent mine mostly on my own without tradesman supervision and had to figure it out myself

Most the time these days they get used as cheap slave labourers in automotive or imported on 457 visas prior to the pandemic because you can treat them like ****, pay them **** all and if they complain you cut them loose and they get deported if they can't find someone else to take them on - was a good article bitching about it in automotive aftermarket magazine a while back about the industry losing all its staff and how some businesses had success by implementing a 'buddy system' (read your legal obligation for apprentices) and pay reviews

This sort of **** is only going to get worse as asset prices increase, you can't get auto tradies around Melbourne as it is now for the going rates, the workshop that maintains my ****box fleet has been looking for 12 months and been unable to land anyone for the usual going rates, even had my customers try poach me from work to go back to the tools.

[Sprintey]

Slowsnake I do agree with you that it is best to be shown in a traditional apprenticeship system by people who are good at what they do. My youngest is luckily in this situation at present. But it is possible to re-create skills if you are tenacious enough. Take the 'trade' I learned while young, surfboard manufacture: there have been no traditionally defined apprenticeships (even very recently the skillset was not even a TAFE style accreditation) so you watch and learn from someone good while working a role for them, or you do a bit of this and develop your own techniques over time. So, it can be done.

oldel, the housing market is taking everything. Agree on that point. The young are playing with their 'P' plate cars which might be an AU V8 bomb, and so it's those they might want later - currently cheap now, even compared to housing. I've got a twist on the idea that international tastes might be what the young want in the future; that is might be mud-pigs instead. Like I said before, offroad is where the Gen Z guys get to be free, and so their happy memories might be in a modded Navara of all things (just been sent the Saturday snap of one flooded into the floorplan haha).

I dunno if these classics, currently high in price, will be flogged off for nothing though. The entrance of investment funds and financialisation of classic cars has seen dynamics enter the market that wasn't there before - a result of central bank policies flooding the world with currency. The suckiest future would be that they stay high in price and no-one can afford them and this is also a possibility. It's monetary Clown World since 2008.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by hayseed

^^^I'm not Too sure about That.^^^

Well I can qualify that and say that the few extra $$ to be wrung out of them won’t match the 7th wonder of the world- compound tax free returns for super investors.